🔗 Share this article

When dawn was breaking the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained stuck in a enclosed conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in strained discussions, with numerous ministers representing multiple blocs of countries from the least developed nations to the richest economies.

Tempers were short, the air heavy as weary delegates faced up to the harsh reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit hovered near the brink of complete breakdown.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for nearly a century, the CO2 emissions produced by utilizing fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, during over three decades of yearly climate meetings, the urgent need to cease fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a decision made two years ago at Cop28 to "shift from fossil fuels". Officials from the Gulf states, Russia, and several other countries were resolved this would not occur another time.

Increasing pressure for change

At the same time, a expanding group of countries were similarly resolved that movement on this issue was vitally needed. They had developed a plan that was gathering increasing support and made it clear they were willing to dig in.

Developing countries desperately wanted to move forward on securing funding support to help them manage the already disastrous impacts of climate disasters.

Critical moment

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were willing to walk out and force a collapse. "It was on the edge for us," commented one government representative. "I was ready to walk away."

The critical development occurred through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Near 6am, principal delegates split from the main group to hold a private conversation with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged wording that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

Instead of explicitly mentioning fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation surprisingly approved the wording.

The room showed visible relief. Celebrations began. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a uncertain, limited step that will barely interrupt the climate's continued progression towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a important shift from absolute paralysis.

Key elements of the agreement

• In addition to the subtle acknowledgment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a roadmap to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be primarily a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the necessary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to stay within the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries secured a threefold increase to $120bn of annual finance to help them cope with the impacts of extreme weather
• This funding will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in polluting businesses transition to the clean economy

Mixed reactions

With global conditions teeters on the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and plunge whole regions into chaos, the agreement was far from the "significant advancement" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some baby steps in the correct path, but in light of the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," warned one environmental analyst.

This limited deal might have been the best attainable, given the political challenges – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the increasing presence of conservative movements, persistent fighting in multiple regions, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"The climate arsonists – the fossil fuel giants – were finally in the focus at these negotiations," says one environmental advocate. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is accessible. Now we must convert it to a real fire escape to a safer world."

Significant divisions revealed

Although nations were able to applaud the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also exposed significant divisions in the only global process for addressing the climate crisis.

"Climate conferences are consensus-based, and in a time of geopolitical divides, unanimity is ever harder to reach," commented one senior UN official. "It would be dishonest to claim that this summit has provided all that is needed. The disparity between our current position and what science demands remains concerningly substantial."

If the world is to prevent the most severe impacts of climate crisis, the international negotiations alone will not be nearly enough.